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#1 Re: The UK Election and the Liberal Democrats Freedom Bill Posted by johnqpublican (88.96.xx.xx) on Wed 17 Mar 2010 at 14:24 Good analysis! Speaking as one who has been watching the LibDems of late, there is a good deal of strength to the view that the party would do best with a minority government, rather than a coalition. The upside of coalition is, basically, Vince in the Treasury. If they don't get that they might as well go home. But to do so, they will have to bargain away 5 years worth of issues power without knowing what things will look like the week the issues arrive; they will become part of a government, and thus harmed by a no confidence vote. If they do not enter a coalition, and force one of the other parties to form a minority government, then that government must bargain for LibDem votes on every issue, probably on every bill. Each thing they want to do, has to be in a shape the LibDems like, and the process will happen on the floor of the house rather than in the cabinet room. The LibDems lose nothing if a minority government loses a no-confidence vote, because they're still in opposition either way. That's a very strong negotiating position; if we're lucky, it's a very serious power shift towards the yellow wing. This is why Clegg has been so insistent about saying the party are not interested in coalition, as far as I can tell; it's not an attempt to conceal who he wants to win the election, it's a genuine political strategy which says Britain gets more liberal across the board if the LibDems stick to their guns. Can't argue. My personal view is that they're the best available option, I like the party on average and I like Clegg&Cable a lot, I'll probably vote for them, but I won't (any time soon) be joining them. I have recently come to the realisation that this is because they are not enough Liberal and too much Democrat for my politics.
Good analysis!
Speaking as one who has been watching the LibDems of late, there is a good deal of strength to the view that the party would do best with a minority government, rather than a coalition.
The upside of coalition is, basically, Vince in the Treasury. If they don't get that they might as well go home. But to do so, they will have to bargain away 5 years worth of issues power without knowing what things will look like the week the issues arrive; they will become part of a government, and thus harmed by a no confidence vote.
If they do not enter a coalition, and force one of the other parties to form a minority government, then that government must bargain for LibDem votes on every issue, probably on every bill. Each thing they want to do, has to be in a shape the LibDems like, and the process will happen on the floor of the house rather than in the cabinet room. The LibDems lose nothing if a minority government loses a no-confidence vote, because they're still in opposition either way. That's a very strong negotiating position; if we're lucky, it's a very serious power shift towards the yellow wing.
This is why Clegg has been so insistent about saying the party are not interested in coalition, as far as I can tell; it's not an attempt to conceal who he wants to win the election, it's a genuine political strategy which says Britain gets more liberal across the board if the LibDems stick to their guns. Can't argue.
My personal view is that they're the best available option, I like the party on average and I like Clegg&Cable a lot, I'll probably vote for them, but I won't (any time soon) be joining them. I have recently come to the realisation that this is because they are not enough Liberal and too much Democrat for my politics.
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